Summer is here and with it a sobering reality: our climate is changing faster than many of us imagined possible. A few days ago, Dr Joelle Gergis, one of Australia’s best climate scientists, shared a striking insight from the latest State of the Climate 2024 report published jointly by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. In a tweet, she wrote:
“A finding that hit me hard was that the extreme year of 2019, Australia’s hottest and driest on record, will become an average year between 2021–2040.”
Let that sink in. The devastating year of 2019, which brought record-breaking heatwaves, widespread drought, and the horrific Black Summer bushfires, is on track to become the new “normal”. For those of us who lived through the suffocating smoke and unimaginable loss of that year, this is a not a good forecast.
And Dr Gergis’s revelation comes just as we step into summer following Australia’s hottest spring ever. At 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, spring temperatures confirmed what climate scientists have been warning for years: extreme weather is no longer a distant threat. It’s here now.
To understand what this means, we need to revisit 2019. That year, Australia’s average temperature was 1.52°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Rainfall was 40% below average, leaving rivers, soils, and forests bone dry. Across the nation, we saw landscapes blackened by bushfires. Entire towns choked on smoke, and Australia’s wildlife suffered massive losses. Ecosystems were pushed to the brink.
The State of the Climate 2024 report tells us that unless urgent action is taken, such conditions will no longer be exceptional - they are about to become the new normal. Every new report, whether from CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reinforces the same message: we’re running out of time.
Dr Joelle Gergis’s words should be a wake-up call. But here’s the question: is anyone listening and are our leaders acting? Climate change isn’t just an abstract problem for tomorrow - it’s shaping our lives today.
As the summer heat builds, we need to do more than just turn up our air conditioners. Although the 1.5°C Paris target is blown, we still have agency. By demanding stronger climate action, supporting renewable energy, and making sustainable choices in our own lives, we can help steer Australia - and the world - towards a more livable future.
The stakes couldn’t be clearer. Let’s rise to the challenge.
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This chart is from the Bureau of Meteorology.