The Climate Consequences of Trump's Win

Election of Donald Trump as the next US President has sent ripples through the global community, particularly but not only among those of us concerned about climate change. With control over the Senate, Trump and his Far Right friends will have the power to make significant changes to US climate policy. This undoubtedly has far-reaching implications for the planet. The US is not only the world's second-largest emitter, but a major infuencer of global climate policy and action.

In the words of climate scientist Bill Hare from Climate Analytics, "election of a climate denier to the US presidency is extremely dangerous for the world.”

Rollback of Environmental Regulations

One of the most immediate concerns is Trump's pledge to roll back key environmental regulations. He has referred to climate change as a "hoax" and expressed his intention to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which has been the major driver of emissions reductions in the US. The IRA is a big deal because it's the largest investment in climate action in US history. It has been reducing greenhouse gas emissions by funding clean energy initiatives, supporting EVs, and promoting energy efficiency. Repealing this act will lead to billions of additional tonnes of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

Increased Fossil Fuel Production

Trump's administration will prioritise and celebrate fossil fuels. Statements like "burn baby burn" and "we have more liquid gold than any country in the world" signal Trump's focus on expanding oil and gas extraction. Encouraged drilling, including in environmentally sensitive areas like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, will exacerbate climate change by increasing carbon emissions and hindering transition to renewable energy.

Withdrawal from International Climate Agreements

Another significant concern is the likely withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement once again and potentially its withdrawal from the entire UN Climate Change Convention. Such a move would undermine global efforts to combat climate change, particularly given the US is one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases and has been a leader in the multilateral system. Trump's contempt for a global approach will discourage other nations from fulfilling their commitments, weakening international collaboration at a critical time.

Impact on Global Emissions

Even though the Biden Administration's climate commitments were well below those needed to protect the world from dangerous climate change, the United States' emissions under Trump will be much worse. Analysis from Carbon Brief, for example, suggests that Trump's policies could lead to an additional 4 billion metric tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to the current trajectory.

Expressed another way, these extra emissions would be equivalent to double all of the global emissions savings secured over the past five years by deploying wind, solar, EVs, nuclear and heat pumps. The extra US emissions would be equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the European Union and Japan. Even with continued commitment from other major international players, such an increase in the US would make it exceedingly difficult to meet global targets for limiting temperature rise. Trump will thus accelerate the adverse effects of climate change worldwide.

Australia Must Counter the Trump Effect

Despite the destructiveness and uncertainty that Trump will bring, we must remember that the US is only responsible for 15% of total global emissions. With commitment from the rest of us who are responsible for the remaining 85% of emissions, there is hope. Furthermore, responsibility in the US for combating climate change does not rest solely on the federal government. States, cities, communities, and individuals can take proactive steps to mitigate the impact of Trump's wrecking ball.

Australia has a unique opportunity to lead by example and collaborate with other nations to strengthen global climate action. We can't and should not blindly follow the US like we have so often in the past. Under Trump, the US will be a foe not ally, in the fight for a safe future for our kids and country. So what we can do?

1. Strengthen National Policies: We can enhance our own climate policies by setting more ambitious emissions reduction targets, investing in renewable energy, and phasing out coal and other fossil fuel exports. These actions should start at COP29.

2. Regional Leadership: By leading initiatives in the Asia-Pacific, Australia can foster regional cooperation on climate action, become a reliable renewable energy supplier to our neighbours, share technological advancements, and support neighbouring countries.

3. Investment in Renewable Energy: Accelerating our investments in solar, wind, hydroelectric power and battery storage can not only reduce our emissions but also stimulate economic growth and job creation. Furthermore, renewables can help insulate Australia from energy price shocks that will come from Trump's hostile and unpredictable foreign policy approaches.

4. Support for Research and Innovation: Funding domestic research into new technologies like energy storage, EVs, and effective carbon capture can further position Australia as a global leader in climate solutions.

5. Engage Businesses, Communities and Politicians: Encouraging businesses to adopt sustainable practices and supporting community-led projects can drive grassroots change. Australia's burgeoning progressive independents movement, for example, gives me hope at a political level.

6. International Collaboration: The US might be the host of the UN Headquarters in New York, but there are another 192 UN member states beyond the US. Working closely with other committed nations and participating actively and positively in international forums will help maintain momentum on global climate initiatives. A stage may also come when we need to team up and apply carbon border adjustment mechanisms against the US.

In addition to national efforts, sub-national entities and individuals play a crucial role. State and local governments can implement policies that promote sustainable development, public transportation, and green infrastructure. Universities and schools can contribute through research, education, and by implementing sustainable campus initiatives. And as individuals, our own personal choices at the ballot box, in energy use, transportation, consumption habits, and advocacy can collectively make a significant impact.

Where to next?

So while election of Donald Trump presents a huge risk for climate progress and undeniable challenges for global climate efforts, it also highlights the importance of resilience and proactive leadership - including from nations like Australia. By intensifying our commitment to zero emissions, investing in renewable energy, remembering that we don't need to blindly follow the US on international policy issues, and fostering collaboration at all levels, we can counterbalance the setbacks Trump will bring and maintain progress towards a liveable planet.

The road ahead may be more difficult, but we don't have a choice.

Image thanks to Carbon Brief.