"It's Going to Get Ugly Folks"

Last week, Berkeley Earth's Global Temperature Report for 2023 delivered two sobering but unsurprising messages on the climate:

(i) 2023 was the warmest year on Earth since records began in 1850; and

(ii) we are on the cusp of even more extreme conditions.

As my one of favourite climate scientists, Joelle Gergis, aptly tweeted, "It's going to get ugly folks". So, what are the report's key findings and what do they mean for our future?

First, it's important to emphasise that Berkeley Earth is a highly renowned non-profit research organisation and plays a crucial scientific role in enhancing the accuracy and accessibility of climate data. Its research and analysis from last year confirms what we all experienced and know - 2023 set a new record for global temperatures. The global annual average temperature was 1.54°C above the preindustrial average (1850-1900), marking the first time temperatures exceeded the critical 1.5°C threshold. This is an ominous milestone given the Paris Agreement aims to keep long-term global warming to 1.5°C based on scientific evidence of what's needed for a safe planet.

At regional and local levels, the report found that 77 countries experienced their warmest year on record in 2023. This affected approximately 2.3 billion people and included major population centres in Asia, South America, and Europe. Both ocean and land temperatures reached unprecedented levels, with the land average exceeding 2.0°C above the preindustrial baseline for the first time.

Perhaps most concerningly, the report shows the world is witnessing an acceleration in global warming. We are on the cusp of serious climate chaos. There is clear evidence of an increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, rapid changes in ocean heat content, and reductions in the oceans' and other carbon sinks' capacities to absorb CO2 and cool the planet. The European Union's Copernicus data shows global temperatures in June this year have already risen to 1.64°C above the preindustrial average. We can thus expect 2024 to be even warmer than 2023, further exacerbating the climate crisis!

The Berkeley Earth report is a stark reminder of the reality of the climate crisis. It underscores the urgent need for global climate action and increased focus on adaptation and disaster preparedness. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather, driven by rising global temperatures, demands immediate and sustained efforts to reduce greenhouse gasses as soon as possible. For Australia, that means - among other things - accelerating the rollout of renewable energy domestically, ceasing coal and gas extraction and exports as soon as possible, and ending native forest logging. This requires determination and bravery from our political leaders. Greenwashing, delay, and surrendering to fear-based politics won't save us. Climate action will.

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