2024 just registered as the hottest year humans have ever recorded. Ocean temperatures also reached unprecedented highs, fueling severe marine heatwaves and disrupting ecosystems. Meanwhile, Arctic and Antarctic ice shrank to some of their lowest levels ever. And now 2025 has kicked off with horrific wildfires scorching Los Angeles. A critical question is reverberating across the climate science community: Is global warming speeding up?
Based on the latest scientific observations and data - from recent temperature records to the analyses shared by climate scientists like Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth - the short answer is yes. In this blog, I distill the reasons behind this trend and what it means.
2023 and 2024 were both significantly hotter than normal. They far exceeded the bounds of natural variability that climate scientists use to gauge whether anomalous warmth is still within historical norms. The fires raging in California now and devastating floods in Spain last year, also fit into this broader pattern of extremes becoming more intense and frequent.
Several factors are speeding up global temperature rises.
Firstly, despite all the talk about climate action, the world is still adding CO₂ and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. In 2024, new global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels reached a record high of approximately 37.4 billion tonnes, contributing to an atmospheric CO₂ concentration that exceeded 422 parts per million. The last time CO2 levels were this high was over three million years ago during the Pliocene epoch, when global temperatures were significantly warmer and sea levels were up to 20 meters higher than today.
Second, emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) pollution - a planet-cooling aerosol that reflects sunlight away from Earth - have fallen. SO₂ emissions have declined by around 40% globally since 2005. While reduced SO₂ pollution has been good for our lungs and reducing acid rain, it has also limited the cooling effect that this pollutant provides. Warming caused by greenhouse gases is thus becoming more pronounced. This highlights the complex interplay between pollutants, where addressing one problem can inadvertently accelerate another if greenhouse gasses are not simultaneously reduced.
Thirdly, climate tipping points are starting to kick in. These tipping points, such as the thawing of permafrost and the loss of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, amplify warming by releasing additional greenhouse gasses and reducing the Earth's ability to reflect sunlight. Perhaps more worryingly, once triggered, these tipping points can create self-reinforcing feedback loops, making it even harder to halt or reverse the warming trajectory.
Climate models predicted this three-fold dilema of emissions growth, SO₂ reduction and tipping points. So we’re following the script that many climate models wrote decades ago. Global warming is accelerating and our climate system is close to breaking point.
NASA, Berkeley Earth’s Global Temperature Report for 2024, latest data from the European Union's Copernicus System of satellites, and a suit of recent peer-reviewed research, paint a consistent picture:
2023 and 2024 broke records and deviated from the near-linear warming trend observed for the last half century.
Short-term natural variability, such as El Niño or La Niña events, can influence annual temperatures but do not fully explain the warming surge of the past two years.
The overall conclusion is that the warming trend is aligning with what climate models predict if CO₂ levels continue to rise.
So Yes, Global Warming is Speeding Up
All the lines of evidence - from temperature records to atmospheric composition and climate disasters - suggest the rate of global warming is accelerating. While there are uncertainties in any scientific endeavor, the signs are clear. When we factor in declining aerosol emissions, steadily rising CO₂ levels, tipping points, and increasing alignment with climate model projections, the answer is unambiguous: Yes, global warming is speeding up.
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Figure: www.BerkleyEarth.org.
I believe Professor Tim Flannery once said, the 3 most important thing we could do to reduce Australia's greenhouse gas emissions were:
Stop political donations
Stop corporate lobbying
Create a truly free press
This is still the case, as Australia's major political parties are captives of the fossil fuel, mining and development industries. The 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions promised by Albanese is an illusion. Most of Australia's reductions have come from dubious claims about changing land use and an unbelievable revision of the land use base emissions. Leading climate scientist and IPCC author Joelle Gergis estimates that since 2005 Australia has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by only 1.8%, if dubious land use claims are excluded. (" Exposing…
That’s quite worrying yes …
Focusing on quick wins to reduce methane emissions as proposed by "We don’t have time" could be key to cool down the planet, slow this progression and buy more time to fully decarbonise. The US has now included methane emissions in their NDC, we should push Australia and other countries to do the same.
https://app.wedonthavetime.org/posts/0edfe669-8f61-452f-ad50-c9ec9f2d3efa
What are your thoughts ?