In November 2024, when the results of the US presidential election became clear, I wrote a blog titled American Democratic Decay: Australia Must Find New Friends. My argument was simple: American dysfunction and polarisation, combined with escalating democratic backsliding, posed a critical challenge to our foreign and strategic policy. Our over-reliance on the US needed urgent reconsideration.
Fast forward three months and we are confronting even more concerning signals. The incoming President is making bombastic statements about annexing Greenland, taking over the Panama Canal, and turning Canada into the 51st US state. These declarations might sound absurd, but they underscore a dangerous trajectory in American: one increasingly defined by autocracy, plutocracy, and disregard for human rights, democracy and international norms.
The US is becoming the kind of country Australia shouldn't be aligning ourselves with as a primary strategic partner.
Why is Trump Making These Statements?
Trump’s declarations about Greenland and the Arctic are not just populist ravings - they’re deeply connected to his ideology and priorities. Central to his worldview is the belief in exploiting natural resources at all costs. His infamous Drill, Baby, Drill mantra reflects an agenda prioritising short-term economic gain over environmental and global stability.
The Arctic, rapidly melting due to climate change, is opening up previously inaccessible reserves of oil and gas. This is a bonanza for fossil fuel interests. Trump’s ambitions for Greenland reflect a desire to secure control over these resources. By annexing Greenland, Trump would also be positioning the US to dominate Arctic shipping routes, exploit mineral wealth, and entrench America’s energy hegemony.
Similarly, the Panama Canal plays into this vision of consolidating American dominance over global trade routes, reflecting a strategy that prioritises control over economic chokepoints. Trumps mention of Canada, meanwhile, seems designed to inflame populist sentiment, aligning with a larger pattern of autocratic leaders using territorial ambitions to galvanise their base.
What Does This Mean for Australia?
Australia has long relied on the US as our principal strategic ally, based on shared democratic values, a commitment to human rights and the rules-based international order, and mutual security guarantees. But what happens when the US no longer reflects these values?
Trump will force an even sharper shift towards autocracy and resource-driven geopolitics. This is not just a foreign policy challenge for Australia. It is a fundamental question about our values as a nation. Can we continue to prioritise a relationship with a country whose leadership undermines democratic norms, degrades human rights, promotes environmental destruction, and positions itself as a domineering global hegemon?
Officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) are undoubtedly already fine-tuning talking points to reassure allies and Australians alike. I remember well from my time working there. They will argue that the US-Australia relationship transcends individual leaders and is grounded in enduring shared interests. But this logic only holds if those shared interests and values remain intact. A US governed by plutocracy and autocracy is not the same nation that signed the ANZUS Treaty.
Time to Diversify Australia’s Strategic Partnerships
Australia can no-longer afford to place all our eggs in the American basket. We must act now to diversify our strategic and economic relationships. We should strengthen ties with regional allies like Japan and South Korea to provide a counterbalance to US uncertainty. We should work hard to deepen engagement with the European Union which is a leader in climate action, human rights and international law. And we should be building much stronger ties with Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are not only our immediate neighbours, they’re critical for our regional security and trade.
Trump’s latest statements on annexations should serve as a wake-up call for Australia. They are more than mere bluster. They reflect a worrying trend towards an autocratic and abusive America. As the Arctic melts and the climate crisis deepens, Trump’s vision of a resource-exploiting superpower is starkly at odds with the values Australia claims to uphold.
We must ask ourselves: do we want to be aligned with a US that has abandoned democracy and human rights and embraced authoritarianism? Or do we take this moment to redefine our alliances, and forge partnerships rooted in shared values and a sustainable future?
The choice is clear. It’s time for Australia to find new friends. And we must do so with urgency and conviction.
I agree with all points about the US alliance. However the EU is no longer politically stable and is susceptible to the same populist driven shift to the hard right. Meanwhile, neighbouring South Eastern Asian economies are joining BRICS. They clearly see little advantage in prioritising closer ties with a nation that is surrendering its own sovereignty to AUKUS