Climate change is a global problem and that’s why the United Nations must play a role in addressing it. But I find it hard to put a lot of faith in the COPs. They’ve been going for almost thirty years and global emissions are still rising right! As a former climate negotiator for Australia, I’ve lived the dysfunction. I remember one two-week meeting in Germany that didn’t start until the day after it was due to finish. Russia had refused to agree to the agenda and there were no rules of procedure for dealing with such a scenario.
Last year’s COP28 in the UAE did seem to mark a positive moment. For the first time ever, fossil fuels got a mention. The world agreed to “transition away” from coal, oil, and gas - the fossil fuels responsible for the bulk of global emissions. This was hailed as a breakthrough, a signal that even major oil-exporting nations were ready to acknowledge the urgency of the climate crisis.
But this year at COP29 in Azerbaijan, things went backwards. Instead of building on COP28’s historic commitment, the final text barely mentioned fossil fuels. The focus was on the money, not emissions. So what went wrong?
A Saudi Strike Back
A lot of it boils down to geopolitics. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, was unhappy with last year’s agreement hosted by its regional rivals, the Emiratis. Determined to prevent further momentum towards phasing out fossil fuels, the Saudis used their considerable influence to block meaningful references to the 2023 commitment. COP negotiating rules require consensus on agreement. This means any country can block anything they don’t. Like the Russians, the Saudi’s don’t care about being social pariahs. So they stood their ground and got what they wanted.
The result in Azerbaijan? A final COP agreement that was weak, vague, and deeply disappointing in the face of the escalating climate crisis.
Why This Matters for Australia
Like we usually do, Australia played nice at the COP. But not as a leader - rather, as a major fossil fuel exporter. We quietly let the Saudis do their work. The Albanese Government talks the talk on climate action, but in reality Australia is still deeply addicted to coal and gas. Continued approvals of new coal mines and gas projects by Environment Minister Plibersek stand in stark contrast to rhetoric on emissions reductions.
Looking ahead, Australia is vying to host COP31 in 2026, in partnership with Pacific Island nations. It’s an appealing bid in some ways: Australia argues it’s time for a change, given that four of the last five COPs have been held in the Middle East or Central Asia, and 23 of the 29 conferences to date have been hosted in the northern hemisphere.
But there’s a glaring contradiction: if Australia wins, it would join a string of recent COP hosts which are major fossil fuel exporters (after Egypt, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil). Whether under an Albanese or a Dutton Government, an Australian-hosted COP risks continuing the dysfunction and fossil-foolery. It risks being little more than another greenwashing exercise, with no meaningful progress on reducing fossil fuel use.
What’s at Stake
The stakes couldn’t be higher. And there is no time to waste. The United Nations has already warned that current policies are putting us on track for 3.1°C of warming within our children’s lifetimes - a devastating outcome for people and ecosystems everywhere. Adding to this challenge, the return of a climate-denialist United States after the presidential handover there in January looms as a significant threat to global climate cooperation.
Despite all this, it’s worth remembering that climate action is still possible. A global surge in clean energy investment is underway. Clean energy makes the best economic sense. The world is on track to exceed $2 trillion in total clean energy investment this year. Solar and wind are now the cheapest forms of power in most regions, and many countries are doubling down on these to secure their energy futures. But without strong, enforceable agreements at COP conferences, that momentum risks being undermined by powerful nations promoting fossil fuel interests.
A Call to Action
This year’s COP highlights the dysfunctional nature of the international climate negotiations. It also underscores the urgent need for accountability - not just for Saudi Arabia, but Australia. After all, thanks to our coal and gas industries, we are second only to Russia when it comes to exported emissions.
As Australians, we need to ask some tough questions: Can we continue to approve new coal and gas projects while claiming to lead on climate? And can we host a COP conference in good faith while continuing to export record amounts of fossil fuels?
The world deserves answers - and action.
Both Labor and LNP will not challenge the big fossil fuel companies. Massive expansion of mining facilities, ships, ports and rail which are often subsidised with state and federal money has ensured the coal, oil and gas business will continue for many years yet.
Hence, protesters are treated like criminals with fines and jail being threatened for peaceful objection. The law will be increasingly brutal in opposing these nuisances to the interests of fossil corporations and complicit governments who are powerless to challenge them.
The majority of Australians are too comfortable to be bothered with what many see as at best an exaggerated scientific claim or at worst an outright lie.
Public apathy combined with clever propaganda will ensure things…