Down on Paper, But Up in Reality: Australia’s 2024 Emissions Report Card

Government spin aims to convince Australians that we’re making progress on the climate. But beneath the greenwashing and weasle words lies a stark and uncomfortable reality. The data shows Australia’s domestic emissions reductions have flat-lined and are padded-out with creative accounting. Worse still, fossil fuel emissions are going up and when exported emissions are included, our climate impact is heading sharply in the wrong direction.

The illusion of emissions reductions

On the surface, the Government’s 2024 data implies Australia is making modest progress towards our climate targets. According to its figures, national emissions have fallen by 23% since 2005. But as the ABC's national science and environment reporter Michael Slezak has recently highlighted, this figure is deeply misleading. The bulk of Australia's so-called reductions come not from genuine changes in Australia’s economy but from land and forestry emissions and how these are accounted for.

If land use is excluded, emissions from sectors like energy, transport, and industry have actually increased - by almost 5% since 2005. Instead of transitioning to cleaner energy and decarbonising key sectors, Australia is relying largely on land management accounting and offsets to achieve so-called emission reductions. This strategy conveniently masks a troubling trend: emissions from fossil fuels are rising!

Exported emissions: the elephant in the room

What’s not included in Australia’s emissions tally is even more alarming. As one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas, emissions generated by Australia’s exports dwarf our domestic footprint. When burned overseas, Australian fossil fuels produce around 1.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually - more than double our domestic emissions.

Tanya Plibersek, Australia’s Minister for the Environment, has already approved eleven new coal mining projects, adding over 1.5 billion tonnes of cumulative lifetime emissions to this global tally. And the North West Shelf Project, which could become Australia’s biggest carbon bomb, is sitting on her desk awaiting approval. Each of these projects locks in decades of emissions at a time when the world needs an urgent end to fossil fuels.

The hypocrisy of net-zero claims

The Government touts a net-zero by 2050 target, but its serial approvals of new fossil fuel projects undercut any credibility in this claim. Net-zero cannot be achieved by scaling up coal and gas. As the world’s climate scientists have repeatedly warned, new fossil fuel projects are incompatible with limiting warming to a safe level. The 1.5°C target is already blown, the world is on track to 2°C within a decade and much worse in our children's lifetimes.

A path forward: real zero, not creative zero

If we are serious about climate action, there's an urgent need for Australia to shift from creative accounting and net zero targets to genuine emissions reductions. This means:

1. Halting new fossil fuel projects: We should join the growing list of countries committing to no new coal, oil, or gas developments.

2. Urgently phasing out fossil fuel exports: An urgent and just transition away from coal and gas exports is essential for achieving a safe climate.

3. Accelerating renewable energy and electrification: Investing in renewables and grid infrastructure to decarbonise the economy, create jobs and reduce energy costs.

4. Counting exported emissions: Australia must take accountability for its exported emissions in its climate accounting and targets.

Australia’s emissions report card for 2024 should be a wake-up call. While the Albanese Government spins the numbers to imply progress, the reality is that emissions from fossil fuel combustion - both at home and abroad - are rising. This isn’t a trajectory of climate leadership; it’s a roadmap to disaster.

The question for Australians is simple: will we hold our leaders accountable and demand real climate action, or will we continue to be complicit in the global climate crisis? The next election will answer that question and determine our future and that of the planet.

Michael Slezak's article on the six charts that tell the story of Australia's slow progress on climate change is worth a read.