Each year ahead of the Climate COPs, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) releases a brief for delegates on the state of play of climate action. This year's report will be released in just a few weeks, and early indications suggest its findings will be anything but encouraging. Global emissions continue to rise, the pace of warming - over land and oceans - is accelerating, and climate catastrophes are already becoming increasingly frequent and severe. The looming report will underscore this widening chasm. Between where we are and where we need to be to avert climate collapse.
Adding weight to this concern, Professor Jim Skea, the newly appointed chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has just delivered a very sobering message. In a recent interview with the Telegraph, Professor Skea warns humanity has missed its chance to keep global warming below 1.5°C, and that it will take "heroic efforts" to stay below 2°C. Even more worryingly, he says that without unprecedented and urgent emissions cuts, we're on track for 3°C of warming by 2100 - a scenario that will have catastrophic implications for ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide.
The Alarming Reality: Emissions Are Still Growing
Despite international agreements like the Paris Accord, global emissions have not only failed to decrease but have continued to grow. Currently, the world is emitting 60 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, up from 40 billion tonnes just two decades ago. This relentless increase is pushing us further away from meeting any of the climate targets that the science shows are necessary to prevent irreversible damage.
The forthcoming UNEP report will inevitably highlight these troubling trends. It will emphasise that current policies are insufficient. And that the actions of countries like Australia, which is the world's biggest coal exporter, are irrational and inexcusable. Many nations have set ambitious long-distance targets, but without more immediate and concrete action and enforcement, these goals will remain mere promises.
Professor Skea's Dire Warning
In his interview, Professor Skea paints a stark picture of our current trajectory:
1.5°C Is Likely Out of Reach: he asserts that due to insufficient efforts to curb emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C is no longer feasible.
Staying Below 2°C Requires Heroic Efforts: To avoid surpassing a 2°C increase, we will need dramatic reductions in emissions - far beyond current commitments which also remain unmet.
Potential for 3°C of Warming: Without real efforts, we're headed towards 3°C of warming in our kids' lifetimes. Some areas, including Western Europe and Australia, will experience even highers.
Professor Skea also emphasises that such warming will not just mean hotter days. It will lead to severe consequences like uninhabitable regions due to extreme heat and humidity, collapsing agricultural productivity and famine, water scarcity, and increased frequency of extreme weather events.
Hurricanes as Harbingers
The theoretical dangers of climate change are already manifesting in real-world events. The current hurricane season in the United States, for example, is off the charts. Hurricane Helene was recently upgraded to a Category 5 storm and is leaving left a trail of destruction. According to John Morales, an atmospheric and environmental scientist and Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, hurricanes like Helene are not outliers but a harbingers of future climate impacts. In a recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Morales warns that as ocean temperatures rise, hurricanes are becoming more intense and frequent. Warmer oceans provide more energy for storms, leading to higher wind speeds and greater rainfall. This not only endangers lives and property but also strains emergency services and disaster preparedness efforts.
The Urgency of Now
Convergence of these warnings - from the anticipated UNEP report, Professor Skea's expert insights, and the tangible evidence of recent and escalating extreme weather events - paints a clear picture: We're running out of time. The actions we take - or fail to take - now will determine the kind of world we live in. And that which we leave for our kids. At the opening of the COP27 in Egypt, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said, "We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator."
It's time to put our feet very firmly on the breaks.
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