American Democratic Decay: Australia Must Find New Friends

Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton just Tweeted their congratulations to Donald Trump on his election as the next President of the United States. But for Australia, a nation that has long considered the United States as our closest ally and most value-aligned friend, Trump's election is an alarming but clarifying development. Erosion of democratic norms in the United States, coupled with divisive leadership and a seemingly willing shift towards authoritarianism, represent a pivotal shift. As American democracy decays, we must urgently reassess our strategic alliances and chart a more independent course.

The Decline of American Democracy

Over the past decade, the United States has grappled with deepening political polarisation, social unrest, and challenges to its democratic institutions. Trump's re-election underscores a troubling trajectory. As Emma Shortis, a scholar of U.S.-Australia relations at the Australia Institute, has already pointed out, "the US is no longer the stable democracy we once relied upon ... its internal conflicts are spilling over."

With Trump's re-election, Australia's reliance on the US as a so-called beacon of democratic values and a cornerstone of global stability is no longer tenable. Allan Behm, one of my favourite defence and strategic studies analysts, has already emphasised that "Australia must recognise that our uncritical alignment with the US poses risks to our national interests and international standing."

Australia's Over-reliance on the United States

For decades, Australia's defence and foreign policies have been closely intertwined with the US. From intelligence sharing to joint military operations and now AUKUS, we've been steadfast partners. But this close relationship has often led us to outsource critical aspects of our sovereignty and decision-making processes.

Last time America elected Trump, Australia's response was that our shared values and bilateral relationship were bigger and more important than any particular leader. I'm sure comments from our Prime Minister and Foreign Minister will be similar this time. But in fact, America's re-election of Trump shows we no longer have those shared values. It's time for Australia to find new friends and alliances. Our national security cannot be contingent upon the stability of a nation in decline, especially one that has elected an autocrat who has vowed to dismantle its systems of checks and balances.

Our economic reliance on the United States as a key trading and investment partner is also increasingly precarious. Under Trump's leadership, his protectionist 'America First' agenda will be at odds with Australia's free trade interests. If we remain overly dependent on the US, our economy and supply chains will inevitably be affected. We must diversify our economic partnerships.

Climate Change: An Adversary, Not an Ally

The largest national security threat facing Australia is climate change. Trump's re-election, with his "drill baby drill" mantra, signals a deepening commitment to fossil fuels and a blatant disregard for global climate action. This stance will position the United States as an adversary to Australia in what should be a unified global fight with shared national interests. As a nation already experiencing severe climate impacts, remaining aligned with the US as it undermines climate action would be contrary to Australia's national interests. We need allies who are committed to reducing emissions, not ones that exacerbate the climate crisis.

Seeking New Partnerships

Australia must broaden our horizons and strengthen ties with nations that share our interests:

Japan and South Korea: As key players in the Asia-Pacific region, both countries share our commitment to democracy, free trade, and regional security. Both are investing in green technologies that we need. And both are committed to reducing their carbon footprints. Enhancing partnerships with them can provide a counterbalance to US uncertainties.

European Union: The EU is not only a champion of democratic values and human rights but also a global leader in climate action and sustainability. Strengthening ties with it can facilitate collaboration on cutting-edge technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable trade practices that align with our national interests in addressing climate change.

India: As the world's largest democracy, although imperfect, India offers opportunities for strategic and economic partnership. Carefully strengthening bilateral ties with India in a way that doesn’t sacrifice our values and encourages it to strengthen democratic norms can enhance regional stability and open up new markets for Australian goods and services.

Southeast Asia: Engaging more strategically with ASEAN countries can foster regional cohesion and mutual growth. They are our immediate neighbours. And they share our concerns and interests on China. Relations with them are crucial for addressing common challenges such as security, migration, and the climate crisis.

Australia's future should be determined by our values and interests, not tethered to a single ally, particularly one in decline and one that is increasingly dysfunctional, internally focused and unpredictable. By pursuing independent foreign and strategic policy, we can better navigate the complexities of the modern world. This doesn't mean abandoning relations with the US, but rather reaching out, finding new friends and recalibrating within a broader and more reliable network. But it does mean that we should jettison AUKUS as soon as possible. Failing to do so will present significant risks to Australia's security as Trump antagonises China.

Where to next?

America's re-election of an angry, hateful, and misogynistic leader serves as a stark reminder that Australia can't keep blindly relying on it as our most important strategic partner. The US is clearly in decline and we no longer share close common values with it. Moreover, its stance on trade and climate change positions it as an obstacle rather than ally to Australia in areas that are critical to our national interests. Our path forward lies in acknowledging this reality and proactively seeking out new friends.

It's time for Australia to step confidently into a future where our alliances and partnerships reflect our geopolitical reality, our values and our aspirations. We can't tie ourselves to fascism, hate, protectionism or climate change denialism. The world is watching. So are we.